Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

基于动态冲击试验的通勤类飞机座椅符合性验证技术

国产某型民用通勤类飞机为了取得欧洲航空安全局(EASA)型号合格证,机上座椅需进行设计更改并补充进行应急着陆情况下的动态要求符合性验证.通过对适航条款及相应标准的解读,研究了基于动态试验的航空座椅动态要求适航验证技术,其主要包括座椅动态性能基本要求、试验构型及工况筛选、试验规划、合格判据和试验结果分析等内容.结果表明,该型机旅客座椅满足适航规章对座椅的动态性能要求.该项旅客座椅动态性能试验的成功为型号取得EASA型号合格证奠定了良好的基础,该型飞机也即将成为第一个取得欧洲型号合格证的国产飞机.     

利用频移动态特征的辐射源目标盲分选

利用辐射源目标的频移动态特征进行盲分选时，针对已有的分选方法不能很好解决非合作接收数据非周期、间断、交叠的问题，提出了一种改进的逻辑回归分选算法,将信号分选转化为轨迹分类的问题来处理。首先，借鉴多目标航迹起始模型中的M/N逻辑法的框架，设计新的数据关联门限，以建立目标起始曲线；其次，采用最小二乘拟合方法替代卡尔曼滤波，设计新的外推规则，建立载频变化预测曲线；分析新的接收数据与预测曲线的关联性，不断迭代回归或形成新的分支，最后获得目标分选结果。仿真与实测试验表明，利用逻辑回归分选算法，对不同运动目标搭载的同频辐射源可进行自动分选，4个仿真目标与2个真实目标的分选正确率达到100%。同时，该方法拓展了辐射源目标盲分选中的动态频移特征应用，为辐射源个体识别提供了新的支持。     

Vertical differentiation,product innovation,and dynamic competition

This paper presents an infinite horizon dynamic model in which two firms compete in a market vertically differentiated by the qualities of their products and consumers have heterogeneous preferences for quality. Given the product qualities offered, the firms engage in price competition that segments the market. In each period each firm can spend on product innovation that if successful increases the quality of its product. Three types of Markov perfect equilibria are identified. A running–coasting equilibrium exhibits increasing quality dominance with one firm undertaking innovation and the other coasting to free ride on the innovation by the first firm. The firm that coasts can have the larger dynamic payoff, so quality dominance does not imply payoff dominance. A second is a leap‐frog equilibrium in which the trailing firm undertakes innovation to leap into the lead. The trailing firm never innovates solely to narrow the gap with the leader, so catch up strategies are never used. In the third both firms undertake innovation, but if both have innovation successes, product differentiation remains the same and profits are reduced by the cost of innovation. The rivalry between Intel and AMD in microprocessors for personal computers provides a motivating example.     

股权金融市场、增长方式选择与平衡增长：传统与新兴部门视角*

为探究股权金融市场对增长方式选择和平衡增长的影响，本文基于传统与新兴部门的差异，构建动态理论模型并利用“Simulink”技术进行数值模拟分析。理论分析发现股权金融市场效率对平衡增长具有增长效应且存在门槛条件，效率高于门槛值时股权金融市场发展将提高平衡增长率和创新贡献率。总体上，发展股权金融市场将促进我国平衡增长和增长方式转变，但东、西部地区存在差异，发展股权市场可以加快东部地区创新型增长而对西部地区没有显著作用。     

A Framework for the Simultaneous Measurement of Spatial Variation and Temporal Movement in Prices in a Heterogeneous Country: The Dynamic Household Regional Product Dummy Model

This paper contributes to the growing literature on spatial prices in large heterogeneous countries. While the literatures on spatial variation and temporal movement in prices have grown in parallel, this study marks a departure by providing a unified treatment and proposing a comprehensive framework that allows both approaches. The proposed model is based on twin extensions of the household version of the “country product dummy model” by allowing for a dynamic stochastic specification and interdependence of spatial prices of geographically adjacent regions. Tests of temporal stability and regional independence of the estimated spatial prices are proposed and applied in this paper. The paper shows that the introduction of an autoregressive error process of order one, AR(1), improves the efficiency of the estimates of parameters, urban‐rural and temporal price indices under certain conditions. The Indian application points to a rich potential for using the proposed framework in cross country comparisons such as the International Comparison Program (ICP) exercises.     

探讨基础设施PPP项目的全生命周期的动态项目管理

当前,PPP模式不仅在我国基础设施建设中发展前景良好,同时在很多国家得到了广泛应用。相比传统的工程项目建设模式,PPP项目具有风险因素复杂和风险较大的特征,因此,PPP项目的成功会在很大程度上受动态项目管理的有效性影响。对项目管理来说,尤其是动态项目风险管理,应贯穿于PPP项目的全生命周期,而只有实现全生命周期的动态风险管理,才能使PPP模式在我国基础设施建设领域中成功利用。     

地方政府经济竞争下的企业负担*——来自上市公司的经验证据

本文基于分权体制下政企之间的两阶段动态博弈模型以及在此基础上构建的计量模型，将地级市之间经济竞争程度与A股非金融类上市公司数据相匹配，验证了地方政府经济竞争程度与企业实际税负之间的关系。研究结果表明，当地方政府所面临的经济竞争程度越激烈时，其辖区内上市公司的实际税负越低。进一步分析发现，地方政府经济竞争对辖区企业的减税效应存在显著的地区、产业和所有制异质性；分位数回归发现，辖区企业处于不同税负强度时，地方政府经济竞争的减税效应也存在明显差异。在当前减税降费、让利于企的新时代背景下，本文的研究对落实减税降费政策和规范横向竞争中地方政府行为具有启示意义。